Let's be upfront about something: "Is now a good time to buy a home?" might be the most common question in real estate — and also one of the most misunderstood. People tend to treat it like a simple yes or no, when in reality, the answer looks different depending on who's asking, where they live, and what they're trying to accomplish. That said, there's real data out there that can point you in the right direction. And right now, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is telling a pretty interesting story.
So What Even Is the Case-Shiller Index?
Before we get into what the numbers mean for you, it helps to know what we're actually looking at. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index is one of the most respected benchmarks for tracking residential real estate values in the United States. It was developed by economists Karl Case and Robert Shiller, and it works by measuring repeat sales — meaning it tracks the same homes over time to see how prices actually move. The national index was set at a baseline of 100 back in January 2000, so when you see today's reading sitting at 328, you know home prices nationally are roughly 3.28 times what they were a quarter century ago.
There's a national index, a 20-city composite, and a 10-city composite — and they're each updated monthly. Think of them as a running scorecard of where the housing market stands at any given moment.
What the Latest Data Actually Shows
Here's where things get genuinely interesting. After home prices hit their all-time nominal highs in February 2025, the market has been cooling off across much of the country. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported just a 1.3% annual gain for September 2025, and all 20 tracked metros recorded month-over-month price declines before seasonal adjustment.
On an annual basis, that marks the ninth straight month of slowing gains and the smallest year-over-year increase since July 2023. Meanwhile, over the past six months, national home prices have risen just 0.4% in nominal terms — which is actually negative when adjusted for inflation.
You might read all that and think, "That sounds bad." But here's the flip side: for buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for price growth to slow down, this is exactly the kind of environment they've been waiting for.
A Cooling Market Isn't a Crashing Market — and That Distinction Matters
There's a big difference between a market that's losing momentum and one that's collapsing. What the Case-Shiller data is showing us isn't a crash — it's a breather. Despite slowing annual appreciation, U.S. home prices remain at record highs, meaning long-term homeowners have retained substantial equity.
That's important context. Home values haven't fallen off a cliff. What's happening is that price growth has cooled because mortgage rates are still elevated, which has made buyers more cautious and given the market a chance to catch its breath. For someone who's ready and financially prepared to buy, that caution from other buyers is actually an opportunity — less competition, more room to negotiate, and in some markets, actual price reductions on the table.
Markets like Tampa, Phoenix, and much of the Sun Belt have seen outright price declines, while cities like Chicago, New York, Boston, and Cleveland are still posting positive appreciation. That kind of regional variation means the "is it a good time to buy" question really does depend on where you're looking.
The Case for Buying (or Investing) Right Now
When you zoom out and look at the longer historical picture from Case-Shiller, the argument for buying real estate over time is pretty hard to argue with. Since 1987, home prices have grown 414%, compared to 192% for the consumer price index — meaning real home price appreciation over that stretch has been 76%. Real estate, purchased and held over time, has consistently outpaced inflation. That's the fundamental case for ownership, and nothing in the current data changes it.
Right now, there are a few specific reasons why the market setup is actually favorable for prepared buyers:
Price growth has slowed. After years of runaway appreciation, home prices in many markets have plateaued or dipped. That means you're not chasing the market the way buyers were in 2021 and 2022.
Inventory is still constrained. Many existing homeowners have remained reluctant to sell because they'd have to give up their low pandemic-era mortgage rates, and new construction activity has stayed limited — keeping inventory levels extremely tight. Tight supply is what keeps prices from falling dramatically, which means any home you buy today is still backed by a market with a structural floor under it.
You're locking in an asset that appreciates. Even in a year where home prices are up just 1-2% nationally, that appreciation still builds equity. Add in the tax advantages of homeownership, and the math generally works in your favor over any 5-7 year horizon.
For investors, slower price growth is a feature, not a bug. When home values are flying up, cap rates compress and deals get hard to pencil out. A cooler appreciation environment like we're in right now can actually make investment properties cash-flow more reasonably — especially in markets where prices have softened.
Affordability Is Personal — And That's Okay
Here's something that gets glossed over in most real estate conversations: "affordability" isn't a universal standard. What's affordable for one person is completely out of reach for another, and the data from Case-Shiller or any national index can only tell part of the story.
Mike Oddo, CEO of HouseJet, put it well: "Affordability is one of those words that means something different to everyone sitting at the table. Your income, your savings, your debt load, your local market — all of it shapes what 'affordable' actually looks like for you personally. That said, market conditions absolutely matter. There are times when the broader environment creates real advantages for buyers and investors — lower competition, more pricing flexibility, motivated sellers — and right now, depending on where you are and what you're looking for, we're seeing a lot of those conditions come together. The national headlines don't tell your story. But if you do the homework on your specific situation and your specific market, the data right now is pointing toward some genuine opportunities."
That perspective matters. Don't let a headline about slowing appreciation talk you out of a move that makes sense for your life and your finances. And equally, don't let the fear of missing out push you into a purchase you're not ready for. The goal is to use the data as one input — not the whole picture.
Where to Track Real Estate Affordability Yourself
One of the best things you can do as a buyer, seller, or investor is build a habit of checking reliable data sources regularly. HouseJet recommends bookmarking these:
FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) — fred.stlouisfed.org — This is where the Case-Shiller national and composite indexes live in their raw, updated form. You can view historical charts going back decades and even set up email alerts for new data releases. It's free, clean, and genuinely useful.
S&P Global / Cotality Case-Shiller — spglobal.com/spdji — The official source for the full index family, including all 20 individual metro breakdowns. If you want to see how your city specifically is trending, this is the place to go.
Realtor.com Research — realtor.com/research — Publishes monthly market trend reports, inventory data, and affordability metrics broken down by metro area. Great for a street-level view of what's happening locally.
NAR (National Association of Realtors) — nar.realtor — The NAR publishes its Housing Affordability Index monthly, which measures whether a median-income family can qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. It's a straightforward, easy-to-understand gauge of where affordability stands nationally.
Zillow Research — zillow.com/research — Covers home value trends, rent versus buy comparisons, and market heat indexes by city. Particularly useful if you're evaluating whether buying or renting makes more financial sense in a given area.
Mortgage News Daily — mortgagenewsdaily.com — If you want to track mortgage rates in real time alongside home price data, this is the resource. Understanding how rate movements affect your monthly payment is just as important as tracking prices.
The Bottom Line
The Case-Shiller data right now tells a story with some subtle differences. Prices have pulled back from their frenzied 2022 highs, annual appreciation has slowed to its weakest pace in years, and affordability is still a real challenge for many buyers. But the foundational case for real estate ownership — building equity, beating inflation over time, having a tangible asset that tends to hold its value — hasn't changed. In fact, for buyers who are financially prepared and willing to do their homework, the current conditions offer something that wasn't available at the height of the market frenzy: breathing room.
The best time to buy has always been when you're ready — financially, emotionally, and strategically. And right now, for a lot of people, the market conditions are lined up to make that decision look pretty smart in hindsight.
Data from Advisor Perspectives and Morningstar was used in the writing of this blog post.
