Selling your house is stressful enough when the market is hot. But when things are flat or heading downward? That's when pricing becomes absolutely critical—and where most sellers make their biggest mistakes.
Here's the thing nobody wants to hear: in a declining market, your house isn't worth what it was six months ago. It's not worth what your neighbor sold theirs for last year. And it's definitely not worth what you think it should be worth based on all the upgrades you've made.
The market doesn't care about your feelings. It doesn't care that you renovated the kitchen or that you have great memories in that backyard. The market only cares about one thing: what buyers are willing to pay right now.
Let's talk about how to price your house correctly when the market isn't on your side—and why getting it wrong could cost you a lot more than you think.
Why Declining Markets Demand Different Pricing Strategies
When the market is climbing, you have some wiggle room. You can price a bit high and still generate interest. Buyers expect bidding wars, and they're emotionally invested in not losing out. The market momentum works in your favor.
In a flat or declining market? All that momentum disappears. Buyers become cautious. They know they have options. They can afford to wait. And they're paying very close attention to every house that sits on the market too long, wondering what's wrong with it.
This shift changes everything about your pricing strategy. You're no longer in control—the market is. And the sooner you accept that reality, the better your outcome will be.
The Temptation to Overprice (And Why It Backfires)
Here's where things get tricky. Your real estate agent suggests listing at $425,000. But you're thinking, "Well, we'll start at $450,000 and see what happens. We can always come down later if we need to."
Bad idea. Really bad idea.
In a declining market, overpricing doesn't just mean your house takes longer to sell. It often means your house sells for significantly less than it would have if you'd priced it right from the start—or worse, it doesn't sell at all.
Here's why: The first two to three weeks your house is on the market are the most critical. That's when you get maximum exposure. Every agent in town is showing new listings to their buyers. Online algorithms are pushing your property to interested shoppers. This is your moment to capture attention and generate offers.
When you overprice, you waste that crucial window. The buyers who could afford your house at the right price never even look at it because it's outside their search parameters. The buyers who do see it think it's overpriced and skip it. Days turn into weeks. Weeks turn into months. And every day your house sits on the market, it becomes less desirable.
Buyers start asking: "What's wrong with this place? Why hasn't it sold yet?" Even when you eventually drop the price to where it should have been all along, you've already damaged your property's reputation. You're now dealing with skeptical buyers who smell desperation and low-ball their offers accordingly.
The Data Doesn't Lie: Overpriced Homes Sell for Less
This isn't just theory—the numbers back it up. Studies consistently show that homes priced above market value from the start ultimately sell for less than comparable homes priced correctly.
Why? Because you're not just competing against other houses. You're competing against time. In a declining market, values are dropping. Every week your house doesn't sell, the market moves away from you. That $425,000 house that you listed at $450,000? By the time you drop the price to $425,000 six weeks later, the market has moved and it's now a $415,000 house. You've lost ground twice—once by overpricing, and again by fighting against falling values.
Then there's the psychological aspect. A house that's been on the market for 60 or 90 days with multiple price drops signals problems to buyers. Even if you finally get an offer, buyers use that market time against you in negotiations. They know you're motivated. They know you're worried. And they offer accordingly.
Getting the Price Right from Day One
So how do you price correctly in a flat or declining market? It starts with data, not emotion.
Look at recent sales—not listings, but actual closed sales—of comparable homes in your area. Pay special attention to sales from the last 30 to 60 days, because that's what reflects the current market. If you're seeing prices decline month over month, factor that trend into your pricing decision.
Consider pending sales too. These are homes that buyers found attractive enough to make offers on. What are they priced at? That tells you where the active demand is right now.
And be honest about your home's condition relative to the competition. If the comparable sales were all move-in ready and your house needs work, you need to price below those comps—not at or above them.
Why You Need the Right Agent More Than Ever
"Pricing your home correctly in any market takes skill and experience, but in a flat or declining market, it's absolutely essential," says Mike Oddo, CEO of HouseJet. "The difference between pricing right and pricing wrong could easily be tens of thousands of dollars—or the difference between selling and not selling at all. You need an agent who will tell you the truth, even when it's not what you want to hear."
That last part is crucial. A good agent won't just agree with whatever price you want to list at to get your business. They'll show you the data. They'll explain the market dynamics. And they'll have the tough conversation about what your house is actually worth right now, not what it was worth or what you wish it was worth.
At HouseJet, we believe that accurate pricing starts with accurate information. That's why HouseJet agents provide sellers with comprehensive market analysis that goes beyond simple comparables—we look at market velocity, absorption rates, and micro-neighborhood trends to help you understand exactly where your house fits in the current market. This data-driven approach helps sellers make informed decisions rather than emotional ones.
The Bottom Line
In a flat or declining market, your asking price is your most powerful marketing tool. Get it right, and you'll attract serious buyers, generate competitive offers, and sell for top dollar in current conditions. Get it wrong, and you'll watch your house languish while the market moves away from you.
The reality is simple: the market doesn't negotiate. You can't convince buyers that your house is worth more than they're willing to pay. All you can do is acknowledge where the market actually is and price accordingly.
Yes, it stings to accept that your house is worth less than you hoped. But here's what stings more: sitting on the market for months, making multiple price cuts, and eventually selling for less than you would have gotten if you'd just priced it right on day one.
Price it right, price it now, and let the market do its job. Everything else is just wishful thinking.